If you read any of the other articles in the streaming series, you can skip the first section of this post and start to read where I go over the best streaming options.
From now till the end of the season, I will go over the best streaming options available for the upcoming week; Monday’s post will have the best options for Monday through Wednesday, and Thursday’s post will have the best options for Thursday through Sunday.
To make your options realistic and reach a wider range of players, we will keep the pool of players eligible to be streamed to those pitchers that are owned in 50% or less of ESPN leagues.
(If you don’t know what wRC+ is, this is a link to the FanGraphs library definition)
Here are the best streaming options for Thursday through Sunday:
Thursday:
Michael Wacha vs. Colorado (At Colorado) IF YOU ARE DESPERATE
ESPN Ownership: 44.5%
Opponent’s wRC+: 91 vs. RHPs (21st in MLB)
Thursday is a day where there is little to be said when it comes to streaming options. Michael Wacha versus the Rockies, who walk 6.9% of the time against RHPs (27th in MLB), and have an 85 wRC+ in the second half of the season against all pitchers (26th in baseball), would be a good matchup in 29 other MLB ballparks, but not in Coors Field. Rarely do you find a stream that is so good that Coors Field’s zany park factors do not come into play, and this situation is no different; start Wacha if you are desperate for a start.
Friday:
Zach McAllister vs. Houston (In Cleveland) IF YOU ARE DESPERATE
ESPN Ownership: 7.2%
Opponent’s wRC+: 86 vs. RHPs (28th in MLB)
In 2012, McAllister finished the season with a 4.11 xFIP, and gave up 1.36 HR/9. This year McAllister has reduced his HR/9 to .86, but his xFIP has risen to 4.53. Why you may ask? McAllister has received some luck from batted balls this year with a 7.4% HR/FB rate, while he was unlucky in 2012 with a 12.1% HR/FB rate. This year may be an over regression to the mean, or it could have something to do with McAllister’s increased usage of his two-seam fastball (22.6% in 2013, compared with 11.6% in 2012). The truth is probably somewhere in between, but the start against the Astros is good enough for me to recommend McAllister “if you are desperate.”
Photo by: Andrew Marscharka
Saturday:
Dillon Gee vs. Philadelphia (At Philadelphia)
ESPN Ownership: 26.9%
Opponent’s wRC+: 92 vs. RHPs (19th in MLB)
As little as the Rockies take free passes, the Phillies are worse, and only walk in 6.7% of their plate appearances: 29th in MLB. And while strikeouts do not matter when it comes to winning baseball games, they do matter when it comes to selecting streaming options; the Phillies are 11th in the MLB with a 19.8% strikeout percentage against RHPs.
Sunday:
Corey Kluber vs. Houston (In Cleveland)
ESPN Ownership: 10.6%
Opponent’s wRC+: 86 vs. RHPs (30th in MLB)
Kluber struggled with long balls in 2012, and gave up 1.29 HR/9, but has managed to suppress homeruns this year and decrease his HR/9 to .86. As with Zach McAllister, this improvement against home runs is either a regression to the mean, a result of Kluber’s inclusion of a sinker as a prominent pitch into his repertoire, or a combination of both.
Sonny Gray vs. Minnesota (In Oakland)
ESPN Ownership: 49.9% (Still Counts)
Opponent’s wRC+: 91 vs. RHPs (22nd MLB)
Enough said. Gray versus the Twins is a slam-dunk stream, and it is a shame that Gray is still not owned in over fifty percent of leagues. Gray has thrown 48.1% of his pitches in the strike zone, which ranks as 20th in MLB, and has managed to amass a 9.33 K/9 to go along with that great control.
Devon Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading about pitcher value in Fantasy Baseball, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.
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